Karel Miedema - posted June 2020
RATINGS show what other stats can’t.
Conventional wisdom has it that stallion stats are best derived from earnings information of individual offspring.
Earnings have drawbacks, though, as they depend on who horses race against (quality of opposition) and under what conditions (difference in weight carried, distance suitability, pace of race, etc.). Without proper benchmarks there’s no telling whether the outcome of a race in terms of earnings really reflects relative racing ability. And stats drawn from this may paint misleading pictures.
Ratings make for a better statistical base to show what stallions are made off.
Ratings reflect ability, taken from all performances, good and bad.
And ratings can be analysed, to give a host of background information.
So How Good Is GALILEO?
Let’s start with the basics.
Our information is drawn from a database of all horses racing between 1998 and 2019 in UK & Ireland. Ratings are from Raceform (RF), which is a variation on ratings from another respected organization, Timeform (TFR).
The database has 120.000 runners with ratings, which statistically follow a Normal Distribution.
The average mean rating is 69 (with a median of 70)
Galileo has 1239 runners, with a mean RF 81 – which means that the average Galileo rates 12 lbs higher than the population average (RF 69).
How do sons and daughters compare?
The database has 66.000 males, averaging RF 73, and 54.000 females, averaging RF 64.
Both are Normally Distributed.
The difference between the sexes is 8 lbs – which leads to the observation that the universal sex allowance in Weight-for-Age races should be just that!
Galileo’s 673 sons average RF 83, his 566 daughters RF 79 – a difference of just 4 lbs.
Galileo’s sons are 10 lbs better than the average male, his daughters 15 lbs better than the average female.
What chance getting a topclass Galileo, or a dud?
Ratings can be divided in groups, going from Gr1 quality down to no-hopers.
Here’s how Galileo compares to the overall population, taken in eight equal steps.
The highest rated group represents Gr1 quality, the second highest is black type level, and down from there. The two right hand percentage columns show the combined values of the two highest and of the three highest rating bins.
| avg. male | 35% | 16% | 16% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 11% | 5% | 66,000 |
| RF | <55 | 55-64 | 65-74 | 75-84 | 85-94 | 95-104 | 105-114 | >115 | >94 | >104 | count |
| GALILEO | 7% | 6% | 9% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 17% | 10% | 45% | 28% | 673 |
| avg. female | 32% | 17% | 18% | 14% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 10% | 5% | 54,000 |
| RF | <47 | 47-56 | 57-66 | 67-76 | 77-86 | 87-96 | 97-106 | >107 | >86 | >96 | count |
| GALILEO | 4% | 5% | 14% | 19% | 18% | 13% | 17% | 10% | 41% | 28% | 566 |
- Compared to the average stallion, Galileo’s performance is remarkable.
- But perspective is important, given that most stallions fail – a fact that’s translated into the overall population figures.
- A more realistic benchmark is needed.
- So here’s Galileo together with a selection of stallions of varying quality, split by sex.
| avg. male | 35% | 16% | 16% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 1% | 11% | 5% | 66,000 |
| RF | <55 | 55-64 | 65-74 | 75-84 | 85-94 | 95-104 | 105-114 | >115 | >94 | >104 | count |
| GALILEO | 7% | 6% | 9% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 17% | 10% | 45% | 28% | 673 |
| Sadler’s Wells | 8% | 6% | 11% | 18% | 18% | 15% | 15% | 9% | 40% | 25% | 527 |
| Dubawi | 4% | 4% | 11% | 24% | 22% | 16% | 11% | 8% | 36% | 20% | 435 |
| Danehill | 9% | 4% | 13% | 19% | 13% | 16% | 13% | 10% | 41% | 25% | 293 |
| Shamardal | 8% | 9% | 14% | 22% | 21% | 12% | 10% | 4% | 27% | 14% | 386 |
| Dansili | 8% | 10% | 12% | 20% | 21% | 13% | 11% | 5% | 29% | 16% | 436 |
| Pivotal | 9% | 8% | 17% | 22% | 18% | 10% | 11% | 5% | 26% | 16% | 498 |
| Montjeu | 8% | 8% | 14% | 18% | 14% | 16% | 12% | 7% | 37% | 21% | 330 |
| Teofilo | 8% | 8% | 13% | 23% | 15% | 17% | 12% | 3% | 32% | 16% | 271 |
| Invincible Spirit | 6% | 7% | 16% | 25% | 17% | 14% | 10% | 4% | 28% | 15% | 528 |
| Oasis Dream | 9% | 8% | 16% | 21% | 18% | 12% | 11% | 3% | 28% | 16% | 458 |
| Cape Cross | 9% | 9% | 15% | 19% | 18% | 15% | 11% | 4% | 31% | 15% | 543 |
| Selkirk | 9% | 8% | 17% | 21% | 15% | 11% | 13% | 6% | 30% | 20% | 302 |
| Danehill Dancer | 10% | 11% | 16% | 22% | 17% | 11% | 10% | 3% | 25% | 14% | 491 |
| Green Desert | 11% | 10% | 17% | 18% | 17% | 13% | 10% | 4% | 27% | 14% | 314 |
| Giant’s Causeway | 7% | 13% | 18% | 21% | 17% | 10% | 11% | 3% | 25% | 14% | 204 |
| Singspiel | 13% | 8% | 13% | 20% | 15% | 16% | 11% | 4% | 31% | 15% | 224 |
| Red Ransom | 14% | 7% | 12% | 25% | 18% | 14% | 7% | 4% | 24% | 10% | 194 |
| Exceed And Excel | 10% | 9% | 17% | 24% | 14% | 15% | 8% | 1% | 25% | 10% | 437 |
| King’s Best | 8% | 11% | 16% | 22% | 20% | 10% | 10% | 3% | 24% | 14% | 251 |
| Cadeaux Genereux | 11% | 13% | 16% | 14% | 20% | 12% | 11% | 2% | 26% | 14% | 283 |
| Dutch Art | 10% | 12% | 14% | 25% | 19% | 11% | 7% | 3% | 21% | 10% | 228 |
| Halling | 11% | 8% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 10% | 12% | 6% | 29% | 19% | 252 |
| Iffraaj | 8% | 8% | 21% | 25% | 20% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 18% | 8% | 295 |
| Acclamation | 7% | 11% | 19% | 23% | 17% | 13% | 8% | 2% | 23% | 9% | 456 |
| Holy Roman Emp. | 8% | 14% | 19% | 21% | 20% | 10% | 7% | 1% | 18% | 8% | 266 |
| High Chaparral | 13% | 10% | 17% | 22% | 15% | 15% | 5% | 3% | 24% | 9% | 255 |
| Kodiak | 8% | 11% | 20% | 23% | 18% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 20% | 8% | 451 |
| Mastercraftsman | 14% | 11% | 20% | 22% | 16% | 9% | 7% | 2% | 17% | 8% | 200 |
| Intikhaab | 11% | 13% | 19% | 22% | 14% | 13% | 6% | 0% | 20% | 7% | 228 |
| Rock Of Gibraltar | 12% | 11% | 20% | 21% | 18% | 8% | 8% | 1% | 18% | 10% | 337 |
| Marju | 14% | 14% | 17% | 22% | 14% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 19% | 10% | 239 |
| avg. female | 32% | 17% | 18% | 14% | 9% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 10% | 5% | 54,000 |
| RF | <47 | 47-56 | 57-66 | 67-76 | 77-86 | 87-96 | 97-106 | >107 | >86 | >96 | count |
| GALILEO | 4% | 5% | 14% | 19% | 18% | 13% | 17% | 10% | 41% | 28% | 566 |
| Sadler’s Wells | 5% | 7% | 10% | 18% | 18% | 15% | 18% | 8% | 43% | 28% | 387 |
| Dubawi | 5% | 8% | 10% | 19% | 23% | 13% | 11% | 11% | 35% | 22% | 301 |
| Danehill | 6% | 5% | 11% | 16% | 19% | 16% | 15% | 9% | 43% | 26% | 262 |
| Shamardal | 3% | 6% | 12% | 28% | 20% | 13% | 12% | 6% | 31% | 18% | 321 |
| Dansili | 6% | 7% | 12% | 22% | 21% | 14% | 8% | 8% | 31% | 17% | 364 |
| Pivotal | 6% | 6% | 13% | 20% | 21% | 15% | 10% | 6% | 33% | 18% | 464 |
| Montjeu | 8% | 10% | 17% | 21% | 15% | 13% | 13% | 3% | 29% | 16% | 235 |
| Teofilo | 6% | 8% | 18% | 23% | 24% | 8% | 11% | 3% | 22% | 14% | 269 |
| Invincible Spirit | 7% | 7% | 14% | 22% | 26% | 11% | 9% | 2% | 24% | 12% | 476 |
| Oasis Dream | 5% | 7% | 17% | 23% | 21% | 13% | 11% | 4% | 27% | 15% | 418 |
| Cape Cross | 6% | 9% | 16% | 23% | 22% | 10% | 9% | 4% | 24% | 14% | 412 |
| Selkirk | 8% | 8% | 18% | 17% | 21% | 13% | 9% | 6% | 29% | 16% | 251 |
| Danehill Dancer | 8% | 9% | 15% | 18% | 18% | 14% | 9% | 7% | 32% | 18% | 456 |
| Green Desert | 7% | 6% | 15% | 26% | 23% | 10% | 10% | 3% | 24% | 14% | 267 |
| Giant’s Causeway | 6% | 10% | 18% | 26% | 16% | 11% | 7% | 4% | 24% | 13% | 125 |
| Singspiel | 9% | 8% | 15% | 24% | 19% | 11% | 11% | 4% | 26% | 15% | 237 |
| Red Ransom | 12% | 12% | 15% | 23% | 22% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 18% | 8% | 165 |
| Exceed And Excel | 7% | 10% | 17% | 26% | 19% | 12% | 7% | 2% | 22% | 10% | 394 |
| King’s Best | 12% | 14% | 23% | 20% | 18% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 13% | 6% | 193 |
| Cadeaux Genereux | 10% | 10% | 17% | 24% | 15% | 12% | 10% | 2% | 23% | 13% | 241 |
| Dutch Art | 9% | 12% | 19% | 20% | 16% | 14% | 7% | 2% | 23% | 9% | 244 |
| Halling | 10% | 15% | 21% | 22% | 14% | 11% | 5% | 2% | 18% | 7% | 214 |
| Iffraaj | 10% | 11% | 17% | 25% | 19% | 9% | 6% | 3% | 18% | 9% | 283 |
| Acclamation | 10% | 15% | 17% | 24% | 16% | 10% | 7% | 1% | 18% | 8% | 413 |
| Holy Roman Emp. | 11% | 15% | 16% | 19% | 17% | 12% | 8% | 2% | 22% | 10% | 281 |
| High Chaparral | 15% | 14% | 17% | 20% | 14% | 9% | 8% | 1% | 20% | 11% | 204 |
| Kodiak | 7% | 13% | 20% | 26% | 17% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 17% | 6% | 416 |
| Mastercraftsman | 10% | 14% | 19% | 21% | 13% | 9% | 10% | 4% | 23% | 14% | 196 |
| Intikhaab | 12% | 14% | 21% | 12% | 19% | 7% | 4% | 3% | 13% | 7% | 169 |
| Rock Of Gibraltar | 15% | 13% | 21% | 22% | 12% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 16% | 10% | 267 |
| Marju | 11% | 15% | 20% | 17% | 16% | 13% | 5% | 4% | 22% | 9% | 218 |
Distance aptitude next.
What can you expect to be a suitable distance for the average Galileo?
- There are distinct distance categories: sprinters, sprint/milers, milers, middle distance, long distance.
- The table shows the rating average of all horses that raced in a given distance group.
- Horses will probably have raced in more than one group – the rating used is the career-best over the distance, meaning that one horse can have different ratings in different groups.
- This explains why the overall RF can be higher than in the individual groups.
| horses | 61,000 | 73,000 | 66,000 | 40,000 | 30,000 | 120,000 |
| distance | 5f-6f | 7f-8f | 9f-10f | 11f-12f | 12f+ | overall |
| RF | 62 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 62 | 69 |
| GALILEO | 106 | 540 | 839 | 678 | 578 | 1239 |
| RF | 69 | 74 | 78 | 81 | 82 | 80 |
| vs. average | +7 | +12 | +15 | +17 | +20 | +11 |
The average Galileo is distinctly better over ground, but average means just that – there will be capable Galileo offspring suited by sprint distances as well!
To give further perspective, here’s Galileo with together with a selection of stallions of varying quality.
| horses | 61,000 | 73,000 | 66,000 | 40,000 | 30,000 | 120,000 |
| distance | 5f-6f | 7f-8f | 9f-10f | 11f-12f | 12f+ | overall |
| RF | 62 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 62 | 69 |
| GALILEO | 69 | 74 | 78 | 81 | 82 | 80 |
| Sadler’s Wells | 67 | 71 | 77 | 77 | 78 | 80 |
| Dubawi | 70 | 75 | 79 | 80 | 83 | 81 |
| Danehill | 75 | 75 | 75 | 76 | 73 | 80 |
| Shamardal | 72 | 73 | 74 | 76 | 70 | 78 |
| Dansili | 70 | 70 | 73 | 74 | 73 | 77 |
| Pivotal | 71 | 70 | 71 | 73 | 69 | 77 |
| Montjeu | 50 | 64 | 70 | 73 | 74 | 76 |
| Teofilo | 63 | 68 | 73 | 74 | 73 | 76 |
| Invincible Sp. | 71 | 72 | 70 | 70 | 69 | 76 |
| Oasis Dream | 71 | 71 | 70 | 71 | 70 | 76 |
| Cape Cross | 65 | 67 | 71 | 74 | 74 | 76 |
| Selkirk | 65 | 69 | 70 | 72 | 68 | 75 |
| Danehill Dancer | 68 | 70 | 69 | 68 | 65 | 74 |
| Green Desert | 69 | 70 | 69 | 67 | 57 | 74 |
| Giant’s C’way | 65 | 70 | 70 | 68 | 69 | 75 |
| Singspiel | 61 | 66 | 69 | 70 | 70 | 74 |
| Red Ransom | 64 | 68 | 70 | 69 | 69 | 73 |
| Exceed & Excel | 71 | 69 | 67 | 63 | 66 | 74 |
| King’s Best | 63 | 67 | 69 | 68 | 65 | 72 |
| Cadeaux Gen. | 67 | 68 | 64 | 65 | 59 | 72 |
| Dutch Art | 68 | 67 | 68 | 70 | 65 | 73 |
| Halling | 56 | 62 | 67 | 70 | 70 | 71 |
| Iffraaj | 67 | 68 | 68 | 67 | 66 | 73 |
| Acclamation | 70 | 67 | 63 | 61 | 59 | 72 |
| Holy Roman E. | 67 | 67 | 67 | 67 | 60 | 72 |
| High Chaparral | 58 | 64 | 67 | 70 | 71 | 72 |
| Kodiac | 68 | 67 | 65 | 63 | 64 | 72 |
| Mastercraftsman | 60 | 63 | 66 | 70 | 69 | 70 |
| Intikhab | 62 | 66 | 66 | 67 | 62 | 70 |
| Rock of Gibraltar | 62 | 63 | 67 | 68 | 66 | 69 |
| Marju | 62 | 65 | 65 | 66 | 59 | 69 |
What about Galileo as broodmare sire?
Time to turn conventional wisdom on its head.
When a stallion gets good race-fillies, conventional wisdom says ‘he’ll make a good broodmare sire’. Meaning that offspring of his daughters will have well above average ratings.
So how does Galileo do?
- We saw that Galileo offspring as a sire averaged a rating of 81, which is 12 above the population average (69).
- For Galileo as a broodmare sire his average rating drops to 75, which is 6 above the population average.
- Given that a broodmare sire contributes half of a sire’s genes in a mating, this makes reasonable sense.
There’s more.
- Whereas Galileo’s offspring as a sire averages 81, when split by sex his sons average 83 and his daughters 79.
- Compared to the population averages for both, 73 and 64, this shows them to be +10 and +15 respectively.
- Not all Galileo daughters go to stud, and not all who do have a race-record. It turns out that the overall average rating of producing Galileo mares is 84.
- More impressive than the overall population, where fillies average 64 and producing mares at stud 77 –suggesting that a lot of lesser female performers from the overall population don’t make it to stud.
Now for the knock-out.
- Galileo mares come in with an average rating of 84.
- The offspring of Galileo mares averages 75.
- That’s nine less than their dams. Going down!
In the context of a selection of other stallions, the same pattern emerges.
The table below is from a sample of broodmare sires with at least 40 ‘offspring’, rated >0.
| fillies | mares | & their offspring | ||
| at stud | ||||
| all sires | 64 | 77 | 69 | -8 |
| GALILEO | 79 | 84 | 75 | -9 |
| Sadler’s Wells | 79 | 86 | 73 | -13 |
| Danehill | 78 | 87 | 72 | -14 |
| Dansili | 75 | 85 | 72 | -13 |
| Pivotal | 76 | 83 | 71 | -12 |
| Montjeu | 72 | 82 | 68 | -14 |
| Oasis Dream | 74 | 81 | 69 | -12 |
| Cape Cross | 72 | 80 | 70 | -10 |
| Cadeaux Genereux | 68 | 78 | 68 | -10 |
| Danehill Dancer | 73 | 81 | 70 | -11 |
| Green Desert | 73 | 78 | 68 | -10 |
The conclusion is that we’re dealing with regression to the mean, and that the conventional wisdom about broodmare sire influence is most likely over-stated.